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Publications

Project Deliverables
  1. Deliverable 1.1: Climate change impacts on European biodiversity – observations and future projections. PDF, 470 KB

  2. Deliverable 2.1: Review paper of the contribution of different models for assessing the impacts of climate change. PDF, 541 KB

  3. Deliverables 2.2 and 2.3: Meta-analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures across the EU25 and their impacts and recommendations how negative impacts can be avoided. PDF, 1.58 MB

  4. Deliverable 3.4: Report on improved method for reserve selection. PDF, 436 KB

  5. Deliverable 3.5: Report on the results of the run of improved modeling to Europe PDF,

  6. Deliverable 4.1: Policy Analysis for Biodiversity under climate change. PDF, 522 KB

  7. Deliverable 4.2: Policy options to prevent/minimise negative impacts on biodiversity. PDF, 188 KB
Published
  1. Albert, C. and Thuiller, W. (2008) Favourability functions versus probability of presence: advantages and misuses, Ecography, 31, 417-422.

  2. Albert, C., Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Davies, I.D. & Garbolino, E. (2008) Land use change and sub-alpine tree dynamics: colonisation of Larix decidua in French sub-alpine grasslands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45, 659–669.

  3. Arlington, VA Hannah, L., Midgley, G.F., Andelmand, S., Araújo, M.B., Hughes, G., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R. & Williams, P.H. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 5: 131-138.

  4. Barnard, P. & Thuiller, W. (2008) Global change and biodiversity: future challenges. Biology Letters, 4, 553-555. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0374.

    Berry, P. (Ed) (2009) Biodiversity in the Balance - Mitigation and Adaptation Conflicts and Synergies. Pensoft Publishers, Sofia-Moscow, 300pp.

  5. Berry, P.M. & Paterson, J.S. (2009) Energy mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity: synergies and antagonisms. In Beyond Kyoto: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 8, 012023. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/8/1/012023.

  6. Broennimann O., Treier U.A., Müller-Schärer H., Thuiller W., Peterson A.T. & Guisan A. (2007) Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. – Ecology Letters 10(8): 701-709.

  7. Ficetola G.F., Thuiller W. & Miaud C. (2007) Prediction and validation of the potential global distribution of a problematic alien invasive species (the American bullfrog). – Diversity and Distributions 13(4): 476-485.

  8. Hannah, L., Araújo, M.B., Midgley, G., Andelman, S., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R., Williams, P. & Lovejoy, T.E. (2008) Terrestrial Biodiversity. In A Climate for Life: Meeting the Global Challenge (eds. Mittermeier, R.A., M.Totten, L. Ledwith Pennypacker, F. Boltz, C.G. Mittermeier, G. Midgley, C.M. Rodríguez, G. Prickett, C. Gascon, P.A. Seligmann and O. Langrand). Pages 183-189. CEMEX Conservation Book Series, ILCP.

  9. Hannah, L., Midgley, G.F., Andelmand, S., Araujo, M.B., Hughes, G., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R. & Williams, P.H. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. – Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 5: 131-138.

  10. Kühn, I et al. (2008) Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity. Pensoft Publishers, paperback, 30 pp.

  11. Kühn, I., Sykes, M.T., Berry, P.M., Thuiller, W., Piper, J.M., Nigmann, U., Araújo, M.B., Balletto, E., Bonelli, S., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Klotz, S., Metzger, M., Midgley, G., Musche, M., Olofsson, J., Paterson, J.S., Penev, L., Rickebusch, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A.R., Schweiger, O., Wilson, E., Settele, J. 2008. MACIS: Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on biodiverSity. GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 17/4: 393-395.

  12. Kühn, I.; Settele, J., Nigmann, U., Rattei, S., Schmidt, A. & MACIS Partners (2007) Policy options to minimize negative effects of climate change on biodiversity. – Sustainable Neighbourhood - from Lisbon to Leipzig through Research, Leipzig, 8-10 May 2007.

  13. Keith, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G.F., Pearson, R.G., Phillips, S.J., Regan, H.M., Araújo, M.B, Rebelo, T.G. (2008) Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, 4, 560-563. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049.

  14. Kunstler G., Thuiller W., Curt T., Bouchaud M., Jouvie R., Deruette F. & Lepart J. (2007) Fagus sylvatica L. recruitment across a fragmented Mediterranean Landscape, importance of long distance effective dispersal, abiotic conditions and biotic interactions. – Diversity and Distributions 13(6): 799-807.

  15. Nigmann, U. (2006) MACIS - Das Gewürz der Politikberatung zum Klimawandel und zur Biodiversität. – UFZeitung 2006: 39.

  16. Nigmann, U., Kühn, I., Settele, J. & MACIS Partners (2007) Minimisation of Negative Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity: The EU Policy Support Project MACIS. (Abstract) – Verhandlungen der Gesellschaft für Ökologie 37: 417.

  17. Paterson, J.S., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Piper, J.M., and Rounsevell, M.D.A.R. (2008) Mitigation, adaptation and the threat to biodiversity. Conservation Biology, 22 (5), 1352- 1355.

  18. Piper, J. & MACIS Partners (2008) Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on biodiverSity. Poster displayed by J. Piper at workshop on ‘Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity’, June 2008. PDF, 3000 KB

  19. Pompe, S., Hanspach, J., Badeck, F., Klotz, St., Thuiller, W., Kühn, I. (2008) Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany – Biology letters 4, 564-567. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231.

  20. Pressey, R.L., Cabeza, M., Watts, M.E., Cowling, R.M. and Wilson, K.A. (2007) Conservation planning in a changing world. – Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22: 583-592. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2007.10.001

  21. Quetier, F., Lavorel, S., Thuiller, W. and Davies, I. (2007) Plant trait-based assessment of ecosystem service sensitivity to land-use change in mountain grasslands. Ecological Applications, 17, 2377-2386.

  22. Randin, C.F., Engler, R., Pearman, P.B., Vittoz, P. & Guisan, A. (in press) Using georeferenced databases to assess the effect of climate change on alpine plant species and diversity. In Körner, C. & Spehn, E.M. (Eds), Data mining for global trends in mountain biodiversity, CRC/Taylor & Francis.

  23. Report about MACIS – Natura 2000 European Commission DG ENV nature newsletter, June 2007, 22: 13.

  24. Rickebusch, S., Thuiller, W., Hickler, T., Araujo M.B., Sykes, M.T., Schweiger, O. & Lafourcade, B. 2008. Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models. Biology Letters, 4, 556-559. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0105.

  25. Schweiger, O., Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Klotz, S., Kühn, I. (2008): Climate change can cause spatial mismatch of trophically interacting species. – Ecology.

  26. Settele, J. & Kühn, I. (2007): Die Natur würfelt neu. – Der Klimawandel stellt viele Organismen vor Herausforderungen und schafft neue Lebensgemeinschaften. – UFZ-Newsletter Februar 2007: 6.

  27. Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Harpke, A., Kühn, I., van Swaay, C., Verovnik, R., Warren, M., Wiemers, M., Hanspach, J., Hickler, T., Kühn, E., van Halder, I., Veling, K., Vliegenhart, A., Wynhoff, I., Schweiger, O. (2008) Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies. BioRisk 1. Pensoft, Sofia (Bulgaria). Online Version

  28. Thuiller W. (2006) Les modèles du changement climatique - Anticiper l'impact. – Espace Naturels 15: 10.

  29. Thuiller W. (2007) Biodiversity - Climate Change and the Ecologist. – Nature 448: 550-552.

  30. Thuiller W. (2007) Coup de chaud sur la biosphère. Sciences et Avenir – Hors Série 150: 48-52.

  31. Thuiller W., Richardson D.M. & Midgley G.F. (2007) Will climate change promote alien plant invasions? In: Biological Invasions (ed. Nentwig W), pp. 197-211. Springer-Verlag, Ecological Studies, Berlin Heidelberg.

  32. Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. and Zimmermann, N.E. (2008). Predicting global change impacts on plant species distributions: future challenges. – Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 9: 137-152.

  33. Trivedi, M.R., Berry, P.M., Morecroft, M.D. and Dawson, T.P. (2008). Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants. – Global Change Biology 14: 1089-1103.

  34. Walther B.A., Schäffer N., Van Niekerk A., Thuiller W., Rahbek C. & Chown S.L. (2007) Modelling the winter distribution of a rare and endangered migrant, the Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola. – IBIS 149: 701-714.

  35. Wilson, E., Piper J. (2008) Spatial Planning for Biodiversity under a Changing Climate. European Environment. vol. 18, 3, 135-151.

  36. de Bello, F., Thuiller, W., Leps, I., Choler, P., Clément, J.-C., Macek, P., Sebastia, M.T., Lavorel, S. Partitioning of functional diversity reveals the scale and extent of trait convergence and divergence. Journal of Vegetation Science
In Press
  1. Albert C., Thuiller W., Lavorel S., Davies I.D. & Garbolino E. Land use change and sub-alpine tree dynamics: colonisation of Larix decidua in French sub-alpine grasslands. – Journal of Applied Ecology.

  2. Araújo, M.B. Climate change and Spatial Conservation Planning. In Spatial Conservation Prioritization: quantitative methods and computational tools (eds. A. Moilanen, H. Possingham, K. Wilson). Oxford University Press.

  3. Araújo, M.B. Climate change and Spatial Conservation Planning. In Spatial Conservation Prioritization: quantitative methods and computational tools (eds. A. Moilanen, H. Possingham, K. Wilson). Oxford University Press.

  4. Araujo, M.B., Nogues-Bravo, D., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., & Whittaker, R.J. Exposure of European biodiversity to changes in human-induced pressures. – Environmental Science and Policy 11: 38-45.

  5. Ficetola, F., Thuiller, W., Padoa-Schioppa, E. From introduction to the establishment of alien species: bioclimatic differences between presence and reproduction localities in the slider turtle. Diversity and Distributions.

  6. Marmion, M., Hjort, J., Thuiller, W. & Luoto, M. A comparison of predictive methods in modelling the distribution of periglacial landforms in Finnish Lapland. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms PDF.

  7. Marmion, M., Hjort, J., Thuiller, W., Luoto, M. Statistical consensus methods for improving predictive geomorphology maps. Computer and Geosciences.

  8. Marmion, M., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R.K., Thuiller, W. The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species. Ecological Modelling, minor revision.

  9. Marmion, M., Parviainen, M., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R.K., Thuiller, W. Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling, Diversity and Distributions.

  10. Morin, X. & Thuiller, W. Species’ range shift under climate change – reducing predictions’ uncertainties through the comparison of niche and process-based approaches. Ecology

  11. Paterson, J.S., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Piper, J.M., and Rounsevell, M. Mitigation, adaptation and the threat to biodiversity. – Conservation Biology.

  12. Quetier F., Lavorel S., Thuiller W. & Davies I. Plant trait-based assessment of ecosystem service sensitivity to land-use change in mountain grasslands. – Ecological applications.

  13. Randin, C., Engler, R., Zappa, M., Normand, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Pearman, P., Vittoz, P., Thuiller, W., Guisan , A. Extinction risk of plant species in mountain regions: contrasted views from continental and local scales. Global Change Biology.

  14. Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R. & Araújo, M.B. BIOMOD - A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x
  15. Vallecillo, S., Brotons, L. & Thuiller, W. Dangers of predicting bird species distributions in response to land-cover changes: the role of dynamic processes. Ecological Applications

  16. Wilson, E. & Piper, J. (in press) Spatial planning for biodiversity in Europe’s changing climate. – European Environment.
Accepted
  1. Anderson, B.J., Martinez-Meyer, E., Akcakaya, H.R., Pearson, R.G., Araujo, M.B., Brook, B.W. & Thuiller, W. How climate change affects the projected range limits of two lagomorph metapopulations.

  2. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. Individualistic vs. community modelling of species distributions under climate change. Ecography. In review. Engler, R. & Guisan, A. MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate.

  3. Engler, R., Randin, C.F., Vittoz, P., Czáka, T., Beniston, M., Zimmermann, N.E. & Guisan, A. Predicting future distribution of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal and landscape matter? Ecography (special issue).

  4. Hickler, T., Fronzek, S., Araújo, M.B., Schweiger, O., Thuiller, W., Sykes, M.T. An ecosystem-model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography.

  5. Hickler, T., Fronzek, S., Miller, P., Smith, B., Araujo, M.B., Schweiger, O., Sykes, M.T., Thuiller, W. (in review). Studies on future species distributions and biodiversity using bioclimatic envelope models might have been based upon misleading measures of water availability.

  6. Morin, X., Thuiller, W. Species' range shift under climate change – reducing predictions’ uncertainties through the comparison of niche and process-based approaches.

  7. Nigmann, U., Münch, D., Münch, M., Achtziger, R. Verbreitung und Ausbreitung der Platanenwanze Arocatus longiceps STÅL, 1872 in Ostdeutschland (Heteroptera, Lygaeidae) – V Sächsische Entomologische Zeitschrift.

  8. Piper, J. and Wilson, E. Comparing three national strategies for climate change adaptation: the salience of planning for biodiversity. – European Planning Studies.

  9. Randin, C.F., Engler, R., Vittoz, P., Czáka, T., Beniston, M., Zimmermann, N.E. & Guisan, A. Simulating dispersal of plant species under transient climate change in a mountain environment: towards more realistic projections? – Global Change Biology.

  10. Randin, C.F., Engler, R., Zappa, M., Normand, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Pearman, P., Vittoz, P., Thuiller, W. & Guisan, A. Extinction risk of plant species in mountain regions: contrasted views from continental and local scales. – Global Change Biology.
In preparation
  1. Araújo, M.B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. Climate change threats to European protected areas.

  2. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. How does predicted assemblage composition vary with individualistic and assemblage-based models of species distributions.

  3. Berry, P et al. Climate change – Biodiversity Conservation and Mitigation Measures (working title). Pensoft Publishers, paperback, 30 pp.

  4. Cabeza, M. & Araújo M.B. Trends in protected area: a suitable indicator in the face of climate change?

  5. Cabeza,M., Araújo, M.B. Kujala, H. and Moilanen, A. Conservation planning with uncertain climate change scenarios.

  6. Engler, R., Guisan, A., Randin, C., Trivedi, M., Berry, P., Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Nogues- Bravo, D., Araujo, M. & the whole EUROMONT consortium. Climatic threat to alpine floras in Europe.

  7. Huntley, B. Altwegg, R. Barnard, P. Midgley, G.F. Chambers, L. Beyond bioclimatic envelopes: Dynamic species’ range and abundance modelling in the context of climatic change.

Last update: 26 March 2009
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